The political catalyst
Which named decision, actor, or institutional milestone matters, and over what horizon?
Hedge funds / Distressed debt & special situations
The opportunity has to
clear your bar
Research for fund managers examining the political, counterparty, and operational assumptions behind a distressed-debt thesis.
Discuss a distressed-debt briefPOLICY ACTORS ASSETS EXPOSURERESEARCH WITH A DEFINED MANDATE
Your question, in focus
Find the political assumption in your thesis
Take one expectation from the investment case: access will improve, a counterparty will perform, or a political decision will arrive on time. Define the observable event behind it, then seek evidence that could challenge it as well as support it.
Which observable developments would make us revisit the political assumptions in this thesis?AN ILLUSTRATIVE RESEARCH MANDATE
The counterparty narrative
Which statements are supported by documents and independent observations—and where do accounts diverge?
The recovery assumptions
Which political or operational assumptions need evidence, and which questions belong with legal or valuation specialists?
A briefing with substance
What a focused
mandate can cover
These are possible research formats. Scope, source access, and delivery are agreed in a briefing conversation.
Thesis-question register
Clear questions, deadlines, and the evidence needed to answer them—with unresolved assumptions kept in view.
Catalyst and counterparty brief
Relevant actors, documentary milestones, competing accounts, and a record of what has changed.
Asset viability note
Documented criteria and missing evidence, kept separate from security valuation or legal conclusions.
Lead development programme
Venezuela
Closer to the asset
Explore the five risk dimensions, scenario framework, and six decision tests alongside an anonymised historical assessment and fictional asset-level examples.
Inside the Venezuela programmeA briefing built for the decision
Where it is heading
Whether it clears your bar
Country direction and commercial viability belong alongside one another. Keep the evidence, the interpretation, and the client’s requirements distinct.
Recognise the research problem
The next investment committee
The political catalyst is too broad
A thesis refers to political normalisation without specifying the decision, actor, or observable milestone.
Documents and narratives diverge
Company disclosures, procedural records, and public statements point to different parts of the story.
The committee needs a review rule
The team needs to know which new evidence would support, challenge, or leave the assumption unresolved.
Where the approach fits
Get more from
a defined mandate
- Your thesis depends on a political or operational assumption.
- You research distressed debt, special situations, or complex counterparties.
- You need to distinguish procedural developments from recovery assumptions.
- You can name an issuer, asset, counterparty, and decision horizon.
- You want research that complements legal and valuation specialists.
BEFORE AFTER / FICTIONAL WORKFLOW
From a country thesis
to an assumption register
- Starting point
- An investment narrative that assumes an operational milestone will follow a political announcement.
- Research work
- Define the question, compare the documentary record, preserve contradictions, and name the next observation.
- Resulting format
- An assumption register, catalyst review, and committee questions.
Explore the work in more detail
See the method
Inspect the output
How to assess the fit
Put one assumption under scrutiny
We can scope a first briefing around a political or operational expectation in your thesis. Agree the time horizon, the competing explanations, and the evidence that would warrant a review.
Judge the proposed work by whether it makes that assumption testable and the reasoning traceable. Valuation, legal conclusions, and investment decisions remain with your team and advisers.
Inspect the fictional thesis-review briefStart with the question that matters
Which political or operational assumption in your thesis would be most costly to leave untested?
See how we can help youTell us your decision and what you would need to see to judge whether our research is useful.