Define the outcome
Specify the subject, activity, observation period, and source rule. Avoid questions that can only be answered with another subjective adjective.
Capability 03 / Decision pathways
Know what would
change your assessment
An assessment becomes easier to review when the question names an outcome, a deadline and the evidence needed to establish it. Record the observation that would change your view and explain why it matters to the decision.
The commercial decision
Six tests, and your bar for each one
A country can become more attractive while a particular opportunity still fails your requirements. Set the bar before deciding whether the evidence clears it.
Rule of law
- Your requirement
- Which protections must work in practice? Agree the threshold with your team.
- The evidence to inspect
- Relevant rules, enforcement history, procedural access, and the limits identified by qualified advisers.
- What would trigger a review
- A documented change in enforcement or access to a remedy.
Enforceable contracts
- Your requirement
- What protection must the agreement provide? Agree the threshold with your team.
- The evidence to inspect
- The contract, governing law, dispute process, security arrangements, and specialist assessment of enforceability.
- What would trigger a review
- A material change in the agreement, its implementation, or the available remedy.
Predictable rules
- Your requirement
- How much regulatory uncertainty can the mandate accept? Agree the threshold with your team.
- The evidence to inspect
- The applicable instruments, decision process, implementation record, and any stated review or expiry dates.
- What would trigger a review
- A new instrument, an implementation decision, or evidence that practice differs from the published rule.
Infrastructure
- Your requirement
- What must be available for the asset to work? Agree the threshold with your team.
- The evidence to inspect
- Dated evidence on power, transport, inputs, maintenance, and the dependencies specific to the facility.
- What would trigger a review
- A verified change in a critical service or access route.
Credible institutions
- Your requirement
- Which institutions must be able to deliver? Agree the threshold with your team.
- The evidence to inspect
- Documented authority, resources, counterparties, implementation capacity, and evidence of past performance.
- What would trigger a review
- A change in authority, capacity, or compliance that affects the decision.
Policy continuity
- Your requirement
- How long must the policy position hold? Agree the threshold with your team.
- The evidence to inspect
- The decision horizon, formal commitments, implementation milestones, and credible routes by which policy could change.
- What would trigger a review
- A decision or actor change that alters the expected policy path.
This walkthrough explains the questions to ask. It does not disclose a client’s thresholds or assign scores to an actual opportunity.
Make the question resolvable
A better question
than “How risky is the country?”
Separate evidence from likelihood
Confidence in a source and probability of a future event are different judgements. Each needs its own basis and limitations.
Keep an update history
Explain why an observation supports a change, why an alternative survives, or why the available record remains insufficient.
For distressed-debt research
Test the assumptions
behind the investment
Start with the part of the investment case that depends on politics or operations. Name the decision that must happen, the party responsible, and the evidence that would make you reconsider.
QUESTION REGISTER / SUGGESTED FIELDS
- Question and decision owner
- Outcome and resolution deadline
- Initial reasoning and alternatives
- Evidence that would support or challenge
- Review history and unresolved gaps
- Resolution and subsequent learning
Validation belongs in the workflow
A numerical forecast needs a documented basis, timestamped updates, resolution criteria, and evaluation against observed outcomes. Review the complete record and its benchmark, including unsuccessful calls. A selected historical case is not a substitute for that evaluation.