Question Book
A written set of questions about your assets, contracts and counterparties, each with a date by which it will be settled and a rule for how it settles. Each carries a probability that moves only when evidence clears the same corroboration rule, and each is scored when its date arrives.
What arrives
The question set, agreed with you and then frozen so it cannot drift.
A probability on each with the developments that moved it, inspectable down to the sources.
An answer and a score on the date, kept as a record over time.
Why the scoring matters
Any firm can give you a probability. Very few will tell you afterwards whether it was any good.
The record of what we got right and wrong is the only honest basis for what our next number is worth.
Who it is for
Credit and special situations investors, and corporate teams who have to defend an assumption to a board or an investment committee.